US wholesale shell egg prices have plunged to roughly $0.22 per dozen as supply surges and HPAI goes five consecutive weeks without a new commercial detection — a dramatic reversal from the crisis highs that defined Q1.

After months of unprecedented price volatility driven by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreaks, the US shell egg market has swung sharply in the opposite direction. As of early May 2026, national wholesale prices for large white shell eggs have fallen to approximately $0.22 per dozen for loose loads — a collapse from the elevated levels that characterized the first quarter of the year. USDA AMS market reports describe current conditions as "steady to lower," with moderate to heavy supplies across key production states and slow seasonal demand following the end of Easter and Passover. As of May 1, 2026, there have been no new HPAI detections in commercial table egg layer flocks for five consecutive weeks, according to USDA APHIS data.

The supply rebound is the primary driver. Year-to-date, HPAI has led to the depopulation of approximately 15.2 million birds across 24 confirmed outbreaks in five states — Colorado, Indiana, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Despite those losses, the industry maintained sufficient pullet replacement pipelines to facilitate rapid flock recovery. USDA has since revised its 2026 table egg production outlook upward compared to 2025, and the resulting inventory overhang is weighing heavily on wholesale prices. Broiler markets are also sending mixed signals: the National Composite Whole Bird price averaged 122.75 cents per pound (week ending May 1, per USDA AMS), with jumbo breast meat and boneless skinless thigh prices rising on tight supply while wings and medium breast softened. Weekly broiler chick placements are running approximately 2% ahead of 2025 levels through late April.

For US layer producers in Indiana, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Wisconsin — the states hardest hit by 2026 HPAI outbreaks — the price collapse arrives at a painful moment. Operations that absorbed the cost of depopulation, biosecurity upgrades, and flock replacement are now selling into a market where wholesale prices have fallen well below breakeven for many. The rapid oversupply swing is a textbook example of the egg market's boom-bust vulnerability: HPAI removes supply and prices spike; producers and remaining flocks ramp to fill the gap; prices overcorrect downward. Layer producers who invested in expanded capacity during the high-price window are now sitting on significant margin pressure.

For broiler integrators across Georgia, Arkansas, Alabama, and North Carolina, the current environment is more nuanced but still cautionary. The 2% production increase versus 2025 is keeping general price levels in check even as specific segments like jumbo breast and thigh meat firm up. Chicken continues to benefit from elevated beef prices and consumer preference for value proteins — but the margin between strong segment pricing (tenders, jumbo breast) and weak segment pricing (wings, medium breast) is widening, requiring tighter cut-out management. For turkey producers, USDA's projected annual average of 156 cents per pound and a production estimate of approximately 4.95 billion pounds for 2026 represent a more stable picture, supported by tight early-year supplies and an eye on the upcoming USMCA review this summer.

Layer producers should monitor USDA AMS egg market reports weekly through June, with particular attention to any uptick in HPAI activity during the spring wild bird migration window — the same seasonal risk that triggered the 2024–2025 outbreak cycle. Five consecutive clean weeks is encouraging, but not yet an all-clear signal. The key inflection point for price recovery will be a meaningful drawdown of current egg inventories, which will require either sustained demand improvement or a supply-side correction. Producers with the ability to time flock placements should build that flexibility into Q3 planning.

For broiler and turkey stakeholders, the USMCA review this summer carries significant implications. Industry advocates — particularly from the National Turkey Federation — are pushing for expanded access to Canadian and Mexican markets for high-value products like breast meat. Any progress on that front would provide a meaningful export demand boost at a time when domestic prices are range-bound. USDA's updated annual broiler production outlook, expected in the coming weeks, will be the next key data release to calibrate supply and demand trajectory for the second half of 2026.

The US poultry market in May 2026 is a tale of three sectors in three different positions: layer producers facing a brutal price correction after HPAI-driven highs, broiler integrators navigating segment-by-segment volatility on top of solid overall demand, and turkey producers holding the most stable ground — for now. The five-week HPAI clean streak is the most important number in the industry right now, and every week it holds, the path toward price normalization becomes clearer. Watch the USDA AMS egg report weekly, track USMCA developments, and keep biosecurity investment at peak levels — the virus hasn't gone away, it's just quiet.